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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
Monday, 04 November 19
COAL INDIA'S OCTOBER PRODUCTION MAY FALL 20% - PTI
Coal India’s production in October is likely to be 19-20 per cent lower at about 40 million tonne, as compared to 49.77 million tonne produce ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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