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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
Monday, 04 November 19
COAL INDIA'S OCTOBER PRODUCTION MAY FALL 20% - PTI
Coal India’s production in October is likely to be 19-20 per cent lower at about 40 million tonne, as compared to 49.77 million tonne produce ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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