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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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