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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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