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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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