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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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