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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 07 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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