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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
...
Thursday, 12 December 19
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.28 MILLION TONS OF MIN.4,400 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,280,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Wednesday, 11 December 19
PANAMAX: THE MARKET REMAINED FIRM IN THE PACIFIC, WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY NOTED IN KEY AREAS, SUCH AS INDONESIA - ALLIED
Capesize – Positive momentum was resumed this past week, with earnings mak-ing some gains once again. This rising pattern was reflected in th ...
Tuesday, 10 December 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS IMO 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CAP LOOMS - STANDARD CLUB
With less than a month to go for the impending IMO 2020 global sulphur cap, the club has started witnessing dispute cases relating to the measureme ...
Monday, 09 December 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO LTD IS INVITING OFFERS FOR MIN 3700 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for 160,000 Tons steam coal.
Acco ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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