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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
BACK TO FUTURE FOR BUSH AS AUSTRALIA CONSIDERS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL NEWCASTLE - HERALD
Looking backwards could show the way forward for regional communities planning for a future beyond mining.
One of Australia’s ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.01 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points, down 0.01 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Taiy ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
With just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk new ...
Monday, 16 December 19
ULTRAMAX: A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, FOR RE-DELIVERY TO CHINA AT $11,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was one-way traffic for the Capesize market this past week, with all routes giving up value. While downward momentum may have slowe ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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