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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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