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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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