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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 25 December 19
COVER FOR WAR AND TERRORISM RISKS, AND COVER IN RESPECT OF BIOLOGICAL AND BIO-CHEMICAL WEAPONS - 2020 POLICY YEAR: AMERICAN CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This Circular describes the arrangements which have been made to provide special cover for war and terrorism risks, and c ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
EXHAUST GAS CLEANING SYSTEMS (SCRUBBER) GUIDANCE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a few weeks, IMO’s ‘global sulphur cap’ will take effect. The permitted levels of SOx in ship emissi ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
INDONESIAN BUKIT ASAM TARGETS TO MINE 30 MLN T OF COAL IN 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesian state-owned coal miner PT Bukit Asam targets to produce around 30 million tonnes of coal in 2020, compared with an estimate of 28.5 mill ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year in the shipping industry is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the dry bulk and tanker markets and how these performed ...
Monday, 23 December 19
VLSFO PRICING & AVAILABILITY NEEDS CAREFUL WATCHING - INTEGR8 FUELS
As we approach January 1st 2020 , the VLSFO price premium to HSFO has widened considerably
We are clearly well into the IMO 2020 transition; ch ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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