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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 29 December 19
AUSTRALIA SUFFERS WORST OF CHINA'S COAL CURBS AFTER EARLIER BOOM - BLOOMBERG
Australia is bearing the brunt of China’s year-end coal import restrictions, ceding market share to other exporters including Russia and Mong ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasing ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
CHINESE INDUSTRIAL CITY TO FURTHER CUT COAL CONSUMPTION - XINHUA
Harbin, capital city of Heilongjiang Province in China’s northeastern industrial heartland, is planning to further reduce its coal consumptio ...
Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world ...
Thursday, 26 December 19
REVIEW OF 2019 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2020 - OPEC
Global economic growth slowed in 2019, impacted by a variety of challenges. Trade issues not only led to reduction in global final consumption but ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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