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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 02 January 20
SULPHUR 2020 COMPENDIUM - HOW ARE INDIVIDUAL PORT STATES EXPECTED TO REACT? - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With the new sulphur limits soon to be in force, Standard Club has been investigating the ways in which certain jurisdict ...
Monday, 30 December 19
AUSTRALIAN MINERS HIT BY LOWEST THERMAL COAL PRICE IN MORE THAN A DECADE - THE GUARDIAN
Australian coal exporters have experienced the biggest annual drop in thermal coal prices in more than a decade during 2019, raising doubts about i ...
Monday, 30 December 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS RISE 4% TO 161.43 MT IN APRIL-NOVEMBER 2019 - PTI
The country’s coal imports registered an increase of 4.4 per cent to 161.43 million tonnes (MT) in the April-November period of the ongoing f ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
IMO 2020 COMPLIANCE: IT'S UP TO US TO BE GOOD CITIZENS - IBIA
One of the concerns around implementation of the 0.50% sulphur limit has been, and continues to be, the need for effective enforcement to ensure a ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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