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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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Showing 1316 to 1320 news of total 6871 |
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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