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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
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Showing 1311 to 1315 news of total 6871 |
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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