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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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Showing 1326 to 1330 news of total 6871 |
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
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