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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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Showing 1326 to 1330 news of total 6871 |
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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