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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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