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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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