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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
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Showing 1306 to 1310 news of total 6871 |
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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