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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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