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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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