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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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