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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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