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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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