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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
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