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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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