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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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