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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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