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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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