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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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