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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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