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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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