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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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