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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
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Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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