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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
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Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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