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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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