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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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