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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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