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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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