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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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