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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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