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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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