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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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