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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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