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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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