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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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