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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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