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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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