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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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