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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
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