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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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