We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
|
|
|
Showing 81 to 85 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
