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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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