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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
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