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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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