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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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