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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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