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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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