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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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