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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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